A few points:

• Apple DOESN’T have to go through the same transition (the “curve”). But I didn’t draw Apple coming in at the top because doing a full product isn’t easy.
• Also, the transition to another “steady state” in cars will take much time. That’s another reason I didn’t draw Apple coming in after the curve.
• Transitions are done best when you can AVOID them. Apple can. And note that done “best” doesn’t mean done “easiest”. You have to master technology, product, and the consumer’s ability to adapt.
• Apple’s ability to avoid a transition in its own executives’ mindset, own technology, own manufacturing, and own consumers’ memory is a HUGE plus. Meaningfully counter-balanced, however, by applying its capabilities in new ways to a new category.
• Generally, though, expect other auto makers to have trouble making the transition. It’s a question of timing (how soon), quality (e.g., hacked security), ingenuity (e.g., design opportunities), and ecosystem (e.g., device interaction). Hence the “curve”.
• Finally, as you can tell from the checklist, there’s more to success than the car itself. For example, I didn’t even get into supply and production issues.

For more of my posts on cars, just click here.

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