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Why China is Hard to Figure Out

May 21, 2015

Tyler Cowen, writing at Marginal Revolution, the (awesome) blog he runs with Alex Tabarrok:

It’s not just the differences of language, history, and culture. It’s not just the (sometimes) questionable economic data, or the paucity of good Chinese academic research until very recent times.

Today’s China is [in a class by itself]. The country has grown so quickly that every decade or so there is a very new China. And so we cannot easily look to the past as a guide. In economic terms, China seven years ago is equally removed from China today as the United States about thirty-five years ago is removed from the United States today, putting recent cyclical factors aside.

You could say that China’s recent past is relatively thin in terms of information. For a more extreme example, how well would we understand an economy which went from zero to fully grown in the span of a week?

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Filed Under: China, Forecasts

Wednesday Assorted Links

April 29, 2015

1. Defining Mobile: 4-5.5 Inches, Portrait & One-Thumb in which Luke Wroblewski discusses smartphone interaction.

2. Apple iPad App Glitch Issue Causes American Airlines Flight Delays We’re simultaneously experiencing the benefits and drawbacks of relying on consumer grade electronics in high-stakes situations.

UPDATE: The root cause wasn’t an iPad glitch. It was a problem with a map update of Ronald Reagan airport. Also, I should clarify: the situation wasn’t high-stakes. I used that term loosely to refer to flying as having high-stakes situations. But this issue wasn’t related to such a situation. As an American Airlines spokesman said:

“That’s why it was not system-wide or a fleet-type problem,” said American Airlines spokesman Casey Norton. “It’s when the pilot accessed a particular map.” […] “We operate 7,000 flights per day,” said Norton “This is not anywhere close to a thunder storm.”

3. Bill Gates made these 15 predictions in 1999 — it’s scary how accurate he was. Great predictions with great accuracy. It shows how wide the gap is between idea and execution.

4. Tracxn, Which Aspires To Be The “Gartner Of Startup Data,” Grabs $3.5M Series A

5. U.S. Is Faulted for Risking Edge in R&D

A a report published Monday by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology […] warned that the U.S. government was spending an ever-smaller percentage of its budget on basic research and development, fundamental exploration in a variety of fields that lays the groundwork for commercial products that may not emerge for years or decades, if ever.

The cutbacks might appear to be economical, but the report says they come at a high cost to both national prestige and long-term economic opportunity. “We are undercutting ourselves by not supporting basic science,” said Andrew Lo, a finance professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management who helped write the report.

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Filed Under: Assorted Links, Data, Forecasts, Interface, R&D, Smartphones, STEM

Tuesday Assorted Links

April 21, 2015

1. Why Under Armour is making a costly bet on connected fitness.

Apparel maker Under Armour believes connected fitness is the future in an increasingly digital world. While athletes are increasingly on board with this vision, investors need more convincing.

2. ABI Research “Apple to ship 13.77 million smart watch units at an ASP of $445 in 2015 to account for 49% of the 28.1 million smart watches forecast to ship in 2015.”

3. Continued supply chain chatter about a 4″ iPhone in 2015.

4. ‘Free’ apps may not be so free after all: They take a big toll on your phone.

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Filed Under: Apple, Apps, Assorted Links, Forecasts, Power, Smartphones, Smartwatches, Wearables - Other

Wrist Wearables will Likely Drive >80% of Wearable Device Shipments, Forecasts IDC

April 1, 2015

Here is Simon Sharwood’s article at The Register.

The wrist is conspicuous (fashion-influenced), conveniently “handy”, and able to support a larger, display-enabled device. Helps it be the most popular place for a wearable device, at least for now. The article includes IDC’s wearable device forecast (below; good to see). But… it really doesn’t matter what the market size is, at this point… You either have a valuable product that you can market and distribute, or you don’t.

Mobile Forward 00059 2015-04-01

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Wearable Device Tracker, March 30, 2015

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Filed Under: Forecasts, Smartwatches, Wearables - Other

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