Mobile Forward

Siri’s Search Power Grows, as Apple Accelerates Machine Learning

My impressions from watching Apple’s developer conference keynote.

Siri and Machine Learning

  • To-date, Siri improvements have been meaningful, but modest, especially if you recall that Siri debuted 3.5 years ago.
  • This is the first keynote where Apple used the terms “machine learning” and “deep linking”.
  • Between Siri intelligence (project Proactive), the News app, Apple’s data center build out, and competitive pressure from Google, my hypothesis is that Apple has put its foot down on machine learning and intelligence. And that doesn’t even take into account the machine learning Apple will need if it pursues a car.

If there’s a list of Apple’s top-5 computing priorities for the next five years, I believe machine learning is on it

  • If there’s a list of Apple’s top-5 computing priorities for the next five years, I believe machine learning is on it. Mark Gurman, who writes for 9to5Mac, mentioned this on his appearance on The Talk Show:

A lot of this is really to tackle Google […] It’s very hard to just […] one day […] decide to drop Google search from your platform. [But] year over year, Apple is adding features that […] reduce the reliance on Google […] teaching the consumer that Google is not necessary.

  • Still not convinced? How about this, from Apple’s iOS 9 preview page (bold emphasis is mine):

“Siri powers a more intelligent Search. […] [it’s] the technology that powers Search on your iPhone and iPad. And now you can get even more answers when you type in the Search field. […] A head start on every search. […] Your search screen is prepopulated […].”

Machine learning is to 21st century devices as the graphical user interface was to 20th century computers [in terms of how] critical it will be to a high-performance product

  • I’m changing my mind about Google’s data-volume-based advantaged. I believe Apple sees a volume of (anonymized) user data that’s on the same order of magnitude as Google (on mobile). Google Now may provide Google with more question / intent data, but Apple sees the bigger picture of what consumers (in aggregate) do / need throughout the day. I base my belief on iOS’ huge installed base, high app downloads and usage, and Apple’s full-stack access to iOS devices.
  • With so many dots to connect: Mac, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Apple TV, Siri, Maps, News, HealthKit, HomeKit, and CarPlay, Apple will have great opportunities to add value to consumer’s daily life.
  • Machine learning is to 21st century devices as the graphical user interface was to 20th century computers. I don’t mean that as a user interface metaphor, but as a way to express how critical it will be to a high-performance product.
  • Apple is poised to deliver Siri’s proactive features to a broad user base very quickly:
    • Math: iOS has a larger unified installed base  X  faster adoption of iOS releases  X  support for more legacy devices.
  • Select unknowns:
    • Impact of 3rd party support (to Google Now on Tap or Siri’s proactive features) to growth.
    • Impact of Apple’s self-imposed privacy guidelines on the feature set / consumer uptake.

[Apple’s] odds of “proficiency” are high. But the odds of being better than Google are not great.

  • So, can Apple develop world-class machine learning capability?
    • At a super high level, let’s consider the large scale data products that Apple has developed in the past few years: Messages, Siri, Maps, iCloud, Apple Pay. Without getting into details here, the track record of these services is mixed, to say the least. So, odds of success with machine learning? Well, the odds of “proficiency” are high. But the odds of being better than Google are not great. Possible, but not great.
  • Note, no one has achieve true “proactive” assistance yet. Here’s my very rough scale:

Mobile Forward 00297 2015-06-09

If you’re Samsung, Lenovo, or Xiaomi what do you do to differentiate from Apple or other Android OEMs?

  • Which brings up another point: how soon until “Hey, Siri” works a) un-tethered and b) with the proactive features?
  • For a comparison of Siri’s intelligence features vs. Google Now and Cortana, see this.
  • Finally, all this is yet another reason why Android and Windows OEMs will perennially struggle to do more than stay on the treadmill. If you’re Samsung, Lenovo, or Xioami, what do you do to differentiate from Apple or other Android OEMs?

Google I/O – Selective Hearing & Amplification

After Apple’s “Proactive” initiative leaked this week, these words from Google’s I/O keynote — during the reveal of “Google Now on Tap” — caught my attention:

Selective Hearing & Amplification from Google I/O

  • Actions
  • Answers […] proactively
  • Context
  • Natural language understanding
  • Things (as in, things recognized)
  • Places (Google can recognize 100M places)
  • Knowledge graph (Google has 1B entities)
  • Neural nets (Google’s is 30 layers deep)
  • Machine learning

Machine learning […] is going to be a critical [capability] for Apple

Some observations

First, these are all related to, or enabled by, the bottom term: Machine Learning. It’s the ability for a computer to learn new things: shapes, patterns of behavior, relationships, and more. This is already a very important capability for Google, and is going to be a critical one for Apple, too. Why? Well, briefly, to enable Apple devices to make sense of the user’s context (location, activity, history, messages, related information, intent, etc.) and, in turn, to help the user achieve her objective, stated or implied. Things like catching a plane, buying a present, or meeting a friend. Or adjusting exercise frequency, sleep, or diet. The possibilities are many.

The figures [Google showed] speak to the […] massive, massive level of investment Google has made

Second, the figures Google mentioned — 30-layer-deep neural net, 100M places cataloged, 1B entities recognized — these are figures that not only speak to the utility that Google Now on Tap will have, they also imply the massive, massive level of investment Google has made. Investment in computing hardware (a good deal of it custom) and software (neural nets, understanding natural language, learning, user interface, etc.).

Finally, this is what Apple’s project Proactive — or anyone’s machine learning ambition — is up against. The question, for Apple is, does it compete head-to-head (symmetrically) or in a focused way (asymmetrically)? Probably the latter. Either way, I can’t wait to see.

Does Apple compete head-to-head […] or in focused way?

Market Scan Highlights: 2015-05-17

Screen Shot 2015-05-17 at 6.11.23 AM

Highlights from this week’s Market Scan. Read it here. Subscribe here.

  • China wireless carriers to slash contract prices, could spur 4G boom (Reuters)
  • MediaTek aims to go head-to-head with Qualcomm in high-end chips using Helio X20 platform (FierceWireless)
  • Amazon VP: ‘Anyone working on NFC is focusing on last century’s problem’ (Mashable)
  • Apple: Top Israeli Tech Exec says Apple’s 700 Israeli-based Engineers Mainly Work on New Chip Designs (Patently Apple)
  • Xiaomi coming to U.S., U.K., France and Germany with accessories to sell (Phone Arena)
  • Microsoft: Cortana for all: Microsoft’s plan to put voice recognition behind anything (Ars Technica)
  • Microsoft will bypass carriers, push Windows 10 updates directly to phones (PC World)
  • Samsung reveals a few facts about its round Gear smartwatch (Engadget)

Market Scan: 2015-05-03

The week’s most important headlines. (Except for earnings coverage; plenty of that elsewhere.) Sign up here.

Industry

  • Nest CEO Tony Fadell on the Future of the Internet (WSJ)
  • Google Now becomes a more robust platform with 70 new partner apps (ZDNet)
  • iPhone trade-ins eroding Chinese Android sales: Report (ZDNet)
  • Cyanogen looking to work with Chinese vendors to load its software on more smartphones (Android Central)

Smartphones

  • Apple: Future iPhones may sport both telephoto and wide angle cameras, patent application suggests (AppleInsider)
  • Apple: iPhone’s New Growth Engine Illustrated: China’s Middle Class (Mobile Forward)
  • More than Half of Apple’s China Levers are Unique to Apple (Mobile Forward)
  • Samsung Pay scheduled to launch in the second half of 2015 (GSMArena)
  • Xiaomi tries to end waiting period for phone buyers, amid complaints (PC World)

[Read more…]

Google Turns On Google Now Cards For 70 New Apps

Darrell Etherington, writing for TechCrunch, reports:

Google Now has been expanding the range and variety of its Google Now cards, with 40 third-party partners unveiled in January. Seventy are being added to the Google app on Android today, bringing the total pool of Now partners up to 110.

This is great. Voice interaction and intelligent assistance are two of the best and highest benefits that mobile devices can provide. It’s not easy, though.

Market Scan Highlights

Peruse the whole thing here (it’s easy). Some highlights, with my comments.

1. The real way to tell whether Google’s wireless service is a success (BGR)

2. Why Apple has purchased camera technology company LinX and what will happen now? (i-Micronews)

  • Good read RE computational imaging, dual cameras

3. Xiaomi Boosts Its Business In India With Strategic Investment From Tata Sons Head (TechCrunch)

  • Dollar value not clear. PR value very clear

4. Xiaomi’s $205 Mi 4i mirrors the iPhone 5C design, claims 1.5-day battery (Ars Technica)

  • High performance to price ratio. Profitable? TBD

5. Full video of Vogue interview with Apple designers Jony Ive and Marc Newson posted to Web (AppleInsider)

  • Always worth it to hear the thoughts of subject matter expert or influential leader

6. Apple: First Look: Apple Watch Apps & Stats (App Annie)

  • Top category (so far) is Utility; 12% of all apps

7. Google: Android Wear’s Low-Power Ambient Mode (Daring Fireball)

8. Samsung filed for “Glastyle” and other Key Trademarks this Week (Patently Mobile)

9. Imaging: Yole on Image Sensor Future (Image Sensors World)

10. Microsoft CEO thinks there’s one BIG reason you’ll love Windows 10: Cortana (Business Insider)

Market Scan Highlights

Peruse the whole thing here (it’s easy). Some highlights, with my comments.

1. Microsoft will bundle its apps on Cyanogen’s Android OS (The Verge)

  • Raises Cyanogen’s credibility, visibility, and viability. Seems like low risk for Microsoft… no?

2. Apple Acquires Array Camera Developer LinX (Image Sensors World)

  • Neat improvement in quality (see link). Looks like Samsung and LG couldn’t afford the price. Apple doing more and more with Israeli co’s. Amazing high tech density.

3. Apple Invents a Simple Voice Command to unlock your iPhone (Patently Apple)

  • Yes, it’s just a patent. But more and more dots point toward “always on voice” coming to Apple products. At least that’s what Amazon Echo tells me.

4. Apple to equip next iPhone with Force Touch technology (DigiTimes)

  • You’d heard that, I know. But the article mentions other vendors using the technology, in 2016.

5. Samsung “will focus its efforts on flexible smartphone units” in 2015 (DigiTimes)

  • Just good to watch this topic.

6. Xiaomi Finds Themselves On The Receiving End Of Counterfeit Products (Ubergizmo)

  • Oh, the irony.

[Read more…]

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